A call for strategic reckoning in West Asia

The Israeli-US war on Iran exposed the limits of foreign-backed security and the dangers of regional dependence on outside powers.

Professor of Global Studies at University of Tehran.

Former Vice President and Foreign Minister of Iran and the co-architect of Iran nuclear deal.

The unprovoked aggression against Iran was the product of blatant miscalculations and mistakes.

It was predicated on the illusion that Iran had been weakened and thus incapable of resisting and responding forcefully to a massive onslaught by two nuclear powers, aided and abetted by regional actors.

Policymakers in Washington and Tel Aviv and in some regional capitals convinced themselves that a swift campaign of economic pressure, sabotage, covert operation, decapitation and indiscriminate war crimes could break the Islamic Republic and leave it with little opportunity to respond.

They were wrong.

Iran’s response, measured yet resolute, demonstrated not only its military resilience but also its capacity to react on a scale that reverberated far beyond the region.

Some of our Arab neighbours in the GCC mistakenly hoped that Iran would either be incapacitated and unable to respond, or would continue to turn a blind eye to their complicity in an aggression that explicitly targeted its territorial integrity and even its very existence.

That illusion proved tragically wishful, and Iran had no other choice but to reluctantly respond – still in a calibrated and restrained fashion – to the attacks launched or logistically supported from the territories of Council states.

To move forward, it is therefore imperative for our neighbours to disabuse themselves of such distorted perceptions of the past and their misplaced proclamations of victimhood.

A transitional moment now confronts our region.

The conflict has exposed the fragility of imported security architectures and the enduring strength of Indigenous power and regional security networking.

Rather than doubling down on yesterday’s alliances, our brothers and sisters in the region will be well-advised to pause and reassess.

The right lessons from this episode point towards a future grounded in self-reliance, regional agency and an inclusive security network.

Second, the “security-and-development model” pursued by several Arab states has proven deeply flawed.

For years, the formula was simple: purchase security by spending lavishly on procuring the most sophisticated US weapons systems and hosting US military bases – and even Israeli intelligence and terrorism centres – and invite foreign investment under the umbrella of that imported security.

The model delivered neither genuine security nor the perception of stability required for sustainable economic growth.

The perception that some Arab capitals sided with the United States and Israel against a fellow Muslim country earned them infamy across the Islamic world.

That reputational damage was later compounded by the US president’s crude and condescending rhetoric directed at them.

Now, reports that Washington is contemplating forcing our neighbours to foot the bill for a war launched at their expense and on Israel’s behalf only confirm the cynicism at the heart of the arrangement.

The greatest mistake would be to double down on this failed model once the guns fall silent.

Continuing to tie national security and economic futures to external patrons who use their bases as a staging ground for aggression against neighbours and treat them as obedient clients is a recipe for perpetual dependence and recurring humiliation.

Third, the war has produced political and legal realities that our neighbours need to recognise.

The presence of American bases – from which aggression to “annihilate Iranian civilisation” was launched and logistically supported – cannot be considered as an innocent and neutral security partnership, but as an existential threat to Iran – as it has been proven over the course of the past two wars and even in previous hostilities against Iran.

These bases have been erected here not to protect their hosts but to harm Iran even at the expense of their hosts.

Arab states that continue to host such installations are actively participating in the militarisation of the region, including the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint vital to their own economies.

Fourth, Israel’s deepening presence in the region has only brought conflict and will bring nothing but insecurity and the erosion of state independence.

Israel does not merely occupy land; it penetrates political systems through sophisticated networks of lobbies and pressure groups.

It hollows out sovereignty from within, turning national decision-making into an extension of its own interests.

To understand the pattern, one needs only examine how AIPAC has captured key levers of power in Washington, or how similar organisations have replicated the model across European capitals.

Just pay attention to the disgust in the United States about how Israel – which has never taken one single step to help its American benefactors – has imposed its whims at the expense of American blood and treasure.

Arab states that have rushed to normalise ties with Tel Aviv – or want to replicate its behaviour – have traded long-term autonomy for short-term optics.

The people of our region deserve better than to watch their governments’ foreign policies increasingly dictated from afar.

A regime that is actively blackmailing its patron, including through the Epstein files, cannot be expected to treat any better those who want to outsource their security to its defunct iron dome.

West Asia is blessed with immense wealth, energy resources, ancient cultures, a common religion and centuries of intertwined histories.

These assets should be capitalised upon to forge a new regional network capable of addressing common challenges – from water scarcity and climate change to economic diversification and technological advancement – without external tutelage.

A security network architecture built by the region, and for the region, is no longer a utopian slogan; it is a strategic necessity.

The war has ended the era of comfortable illusions.

It is evident that security cannot be purchased or outsourced.

Nor can security be attained at the expense of the insecurity and threats against Iran.

With this war, realities cannot be ignored, nor can Iran’s grievances be swept under the rug.

Foreigners are only here to take advantage and will leave as soon as the costs outweigh the benefits.

But we are destined to live together until the Day of Judgement.

Iran has shown it cannot be subdued by the war machines of the biggest evil powers, but is eager to live in peace with its Muslim brothers and sisters in the region.

The real question is whether the rest of West Asia will have the wisdom to adapt to that enduring truth.

Let us all seize this moment to build a future defined by respect, dignity, and mutual security and prosperity.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.