Iran conflict reveals cracks in U.S.-backed deterrence

The Iran war has exposed the limits of the “protection for sale” system that has defined Gulf geopolitics for decades
By Jamal Ibrahim - Adeel Malik
Project Syndicate
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BEIRUT/OXFORD, England –
For decades, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have exported oil and recycled petrodollars through Western markets and received military protection from the United States
This arrangement has often been described as a strategic alliance
In reality, it is more like a system of “protection for sale,” in which the GCC has effectively purchased security guarantees through arms contracts, basing rights and geopolitical alignment.The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has exposed the inherent fragility of this model and called into question the credibility of the entire deterrence architecture
military presence in the region, Iran’s ability to close the Strait of Hormuz and unleash a barrage of strikes across the GCC has demonstrated that the U.S
cannot guarantee the security of its own installations, let alone that of the Gulf countries
American bases and personnel have become vulnerable assets, even as the U.S
projects power globally.The reason for this asymmetry is clear: Missile and drone warfare have fundamentally changed the cost structure of conflict
Low-cost drones, in particular, have enabled Iran to pose a credible threat to extremely expensive assets such as air bases, ports and oil facilities
The marginal cost of disruption is now far lower than the marginal cost of defense.

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