Labour and Tories face 'seismic' defeat in London as Polanski's Greens and Farage's Reform surge - new poll

The Conservatives are forecast to be down nine percentage points to 17%, and a new historic low in London local government.

The central prediction of the detailed analysis was Labour could fall from having the most votes in 21 councils to 15, down six from the local elections four years ago when it won the former Tory strongholds of Westminster, Wandsworth and Barnet.

However, in a sign of how badly the Conservatives may be doing in London, the survey suggested they could win back Barnet but Labour might retain Westminster and Wandsworth.

The Greens , who have surged in popularity under Mr Polanski as leader, could come first in four boroughs, Lambeth, Hackney, Lewisham and Waltham Forest.

The Conservatives remain in first place in five councils, down one, while the Liberal Democrats are up one to four boroughs.

“Our first ever MRP model (poll) in London for borough elections projects a seismic shift for local government in the capital, with major gains for the Greens and Reform UK , as well as historic losses for Labour,” said YouGov.

“Labour is on course to lose councils they’ve held for decades.

“In many boroughs, though, the margins are small, with multiple parties plausibly being victorious on 7 May.”
Lutfur Rahman’s Aspire party is forecast to again come first in Tower Hamlets, having become the first party other than the Conservatives, Labour or Lib Dems to win a London borough outright at the 2022 elections.

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The polling has several possible outcomes, rather than just a central forecast, and in the worst one for Labour it ceases having the most votes in 14 councils, down to as few as seven.

If Labour defies the polls and does far better than expected it could stay top in 19 boroughs.

The Greens could top the vote in eight councils, according to the most optimistic prediction, and Reform five.

Alternatively, they could be in first position in only one borough each.

With the fragmentation of British politics, there are 10 boroughs where the second-placed party is within two percentage points of the largest party, a further six where the margin is less than five percentage points, and nine more where the margin is less than 10.

YouGov stressed that the largest group where political parties were close were councils where Labour and the Greens are both within five points of each other.

They include Brent, Ealing, Hackney, Haringey, Hounslow, Lambeth, Lewisham, Newham and Waltham Forest, with the Conservatives providing the third participant for three-way battles in Croydon, Enfield and Redbridge.

In Merton, the Lib Dems were narrowly ahead of Labour, with just a point between the two parties.

The Tories are projected to ‘flip’ largest-party status in Barnet by a margin of just over five points.

Mr Farage has set his party the goal of winning London councils and it is five points ahead in Havering, with smaller leads in both Bromley, and Barking and Dagenham.

It is also within five points of beating the Tories in Bexley.

YouGov emphasised that winning in Barking and Dagenham would be a particular scalp for Reform as it is the only London borough to have remained under Labour majority control since it was created in the 1960s.

Newham, where the Greens and Newham Independents Party are threatening Labour, has also been run by Sir Keir’s party since its creation, though not always with a majority.

The Conservatives are forecast to fall from 26% to 17%.

The Greens are expected to surge ten points to 22%, and Reform who were close to zero in 2022 to get 14%.

The Lib Dems would be almost unchanged on 14%, compared to 15% four years ago.

* YouGov interviewed 4,548 Londoners between March 27 and April 21.

MRP polls are based on large-scale polling of sections of society and extrapolating to get constituency or council level results.