NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket: Computer simulation predicts surprising upsets, sleepers, March Madness picks

When does the March Madness 2026 schedule start, and when are 2026 NCAA Tournament brackets due?

The 2026 March Madness bracket begins on Thursday, March 19
Last year, Rick Pitino and John Calipari met in the second round of the NCAA Tournament bracket, and 2026 March Madness bracket picks could feature Pitino against another coaching legend early.

No.

5 St.

John's plays No.

12 Northern Iowa in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket, with the winner playing the victor of No.

4 Kansas vs.

No.

13 California Baptist.

The seeds tell you it's likely for a Bill Self vs.

Rick Pitino second-round matchup, and if so, which legendary coach should you back when making 2026 NCAA Tournament picks?

St.

John's is coming off a Big East regular season and tournament championship, while Kansas has another loaded lineup, led by potential No.

1 overall pick Darryn Peterson.

This will be a tough matchup for millions to predict when filling out their March Madness 2026 bracket.

Before you make your 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the 2026 March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine .

Two years ago, SportsLine's computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No.

11 Oregon over No.

6 South Carolina, No.

11 NC State over No.

6 Texas Tech, No.

10 Colorado over No.

7 Florida.

Last year, SportsLine's computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including calling both 9-seeds that advanced in the first round, No.

12 Colorado State over No.

5 Memphis, and No.

6 BYU advancing to the Sweet 16.

The model has beaten over 91 percent of all CBS Sports bracket players in four of the past seven tournaments.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn's championship run in 2024.

It nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 and correctly predicted all four Final Four teams a year ago.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times.

It entered conference tournament week on a sizzling 14-2 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-21 run on top-rated CBB side picks.

You shouldn't even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say .

Top 2026 March Madness bracket upset picks
One South Region surprise the model has identified: No.

9 Iowa defeats No.

8 Clemson in the first round.

Iowa has the No.

15-ranked scoring defense in the nation, allowing 66 points per game.

Clemson has a strong defense as well, allowing 66.7 ppg (21st ranked), but Iowa also holds a slight scoring edge at 75.2 ppg compared to Clemson at 74.1 ppg this season.

The Hawkeyes (21-12) had an instant turnaround under first-year head coach Ben McCollum, who led Drake to a 31-win season and NCAA Tournament appearance last year.

Drake also won its first-round matchup last year, so McCollum knows how to win in March.

McCollum led Iowa to a 21-win season after three straight years of finishing with fewer than 20 wins.

Meanwhile, Clemson (24-10) has three fewer wins than last year and enters as a No.

8 seed.

The Tigers also have their worst seed over the last three years, entering as a No.

5 and No.

6 over the prior two years.

Iowa appears to be a team on the rise, and the model likes that to showcase itself with a 9 over 8 win in the South.

Another South Region surprise the model has identified: No.

10 Texas A&M knocks off No.

7 Saint Mary's.

Aggies head coach Bucky McMillan got his start as a high school coach in Alabama while Gaels head coach Randy Bennett has been in charge of the Gaels since 2001.

However, this game will likely be decided by which team dictates the tempo, with Texas A&M ranking 29th in adjusted possessions per 40 minutes and Saint Mary's ranking 297th.

In their only matchup against an SEC opponent this season, the Gaels gave up 96 points to Vanderbilt in a loss and the Commodores also play fast an efficiently offensively.

Saint Mary's was also only 1-4 in Quad 1 games this season and the Aggies constitute an extremely tough first-round matchup after a great season in the WCC.

See which other 2026 March Madness upsets and matchups to target here .

How to make 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions
Who wins every tournament-defining matchup?

And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket?

With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks .

So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket?

And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball?

Visit SportsLine now to see which region features two mammoth upsets in the first round, including one by a No.

14 seed, and see which 6-seed makes the Sweet 16, all from the model that's nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds .