Reporter's Notebook: GOP pushes election security bill despite slim odds, as Trump pressure looms

"We have a unique moment in time here, right now, to address an issue that’s really fundamental," said Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., Tuesday.

Longtime Congressional agriculture reporter Matt Kaye had just asked Thune why the Senate was willing to burn so much time on the bill – despite it apparently lacking the votes to pass.

"Floor time is the coin of the realm," observed Kaye.

"How does it help you if you are using up valuable floor time by having an extended debate on this issue?"
Kaye then inquired why the Senate wouldn’t toil instead on a possible farm bill or even a supplemental spending plan for the war in Iran.

Kaye is on to something.

Senate floor time is always at a premium.

There are only so many floor hours available each week.

But floor time isn’t the issue here.

There’s only one thing which is more valuable in politics.

And in this particular case for the GOP, it’s staying on the right side of President Trump.
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"Your birth certificate?

Social Security number when you show up at the polling place?" asked Suggs.

"That might be a little unfair to certain people in this country, including myself.

I don't want to walk around with my birth certificate and my Social Security card.

I'm a registered voter.

I've been voting since I was 18 years old, and now I'm approaching 60.

I don't want that to be some kind of deliberate act to stop me from voting."
The bill is now into its fourth day of debate – even if it’s doubtful the Senate has the votes to pass the measure.

Democrats oppose the legislation.

But the main problem lingers among members of the president’s party.

"Republicans by themselves don't have the votes to get it passed," said Sen.

Cynthia Lummis (R-WY).

She cited that some Republicans opposed the bill over differences about mail-in voting.

"It's not a one size fits all process.

And those challenges are not only apparent within the Democrat caucus.

They're apparent within the Republican caucus," said Lummis.

There’s been a lot of chatter in the Senate lately about torching the filibuster, so the Senate can pass the bill.

Breaking a filibuster requires 60 votes.

So if the bill doesn’t have a simple majority, there is simply no universe where the measure can command 60.

Yours truly took this up with Thune.
"You don't have 60 votes.

Why go through this?

Is this basically just a show?" I asked.

"We don't know that we don't have 60 votes yet.

You're making an assumption," replied the South Dakota Republican.

"Multiple members of your conference say that there aren't even 51 votes," I followed up.

"Yeah.

Well, you're making an assumption that at the end of this debate that none of the Democrats will be won over.

And I'm not saying that.

I appreciate your skepticism.

But I think it's an important debate to have because it is an issue that is at the very core of elections in this country," answered Thune.

The "60 vote" issue galls some Republicans.

Especially on a subject like this which Republicans believe resonates with the electorate.

"If a body of 100 people can't find 60 votes for an issue that's an 80-20 issue, that's a real disgrace," said Sen.

Dave McCormick, R-Penn., on Fox Business.

"So we need to put the Democrats on the spot and have them defend this to their voters."
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Then, there are social issues – which Republicans hope to link to this measure, too.

Senate GOPers devised amendments which would block men from playing women’s sports, bar transgender surgeries for kids and nix many forms of mail-in voting.

Opponents ask what two of those three have to do with election security.

That’s why they could be poison pills.

"If those those amendments are made in order, doesn't that bring down the threshold where you might have a chance of getting 51 votes?" I asked Sen.

Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn.

"Let's continue to work with leadership and see how all of this is going to proceed and what is going to be the best way to get these forward.

I think the amendments are good amendments," said Blackburn, not addressing the question.

Remember what Thune said about Republicans potentially peeling off some Democrats? Good luck.

"You're somebody who sometimes bucks your party," I queried Sen.

John Fetterman, D-Penn.

"Why wouldn't you side with the Republicans?"
"Well, they've turned it into an unserious kind of a Christmas tree and attaching all these other things to it.

And now bashing mail-in voting.

Absolutely, it's secure.

Florida loves it and uses it.

Ohio does too," said Fetterman.

Sen.

John Hickenlooper, D-Colo., defended his state’s approach to sending in ballots.

"Almost 99 percent of Republican voters in Colorado voted by mail in 2025," said Hickenlooper.

"Vote by mail has proven to be less expensive, more secure, and people love it.

That turnout just goes up.

It’s perhaps the single most effective way to increase voter turnout today."
But a vote related to the mail-in balloting amendment likely lacks the votes to pass and could tank the entire piece of legislation.

Sen.

Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) says the vastness of Alaska presents problems for residents to provide proper papers.

"If I happen to live here in Kotzebue, I've got to fly here to Nome to present my documentation.

If I live in this Bethel community over here, I'm going all the way to Anchorage to present my documentation," said Murkowski.

"This is going to be costly on Alaskans.

And again, these are people who are eligible to vote."
Fox is told that Thune’s intention is to eventually move to terminate debate on the bill.

That needs 60 yeas.

There’s nowhere near 60 yeas to break a filibuster.

That will kill the bill.

Still, Thune might not do that until next week.

Why?

This is about making a show of things for the GOP base – even if they can’t pass the bill.

"It needs to get resolved by the end of next week," said Thune of the DHS impasse.

"I can't see us taking a break if the government is still shut down."
Floor time is the coin of the realm.

You can use it to get something done.

Or to earn political capital among party loyalists and the president.

In this instance, Thune is trying to do both.