Shifting alliances shape Horn of Africa tensions

Regional rivalries involving Gulf and Middle Eastern countries are influencing security dynamics in the Horn of Africa.

A geopolitical rivalry in the Horn of Africa may expose the region and its tightly interconnected regional security complex to the Iran war, analysts say.

They note that escalating rivalry between countries often aligned with Saudi Arabia or Turkey on one side, and countries aligned with the UAE and Israel on the other.

Somaliland , a breakaway region of Somalia, for example has become a flashpoint.

Iran strategy shapes regional risks
Moses Chrispus Okello, a senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Addis Ababa, says there is a high risk of escalation in Somaliland, where Israel and the UAE have interests.

He says tensions could also rise in neighboring Djibouti, where the US and other powers are active.

Okello noted that, although the Tehran‑aligned Houthi group in Yemen has not engaged in the US-Israel war with Iran thus far, any further escalation in the Middle East heightens the likelihood of their involvement.

"But they have historically indicated that any friend of Israel is an enemy.

Therefore, in a way we could say that even if they are quiet, it doesn't preclude the fact that they might very easily reactivate their activity," he explained.

Houthis signal potential retaliation
Okello also pointed out that religious dynamics might influence the Houthis' calculations, noting that most Muslims in Somalia, Somaliland and Djibouti are predominantly Sunni, while the Houthis are of Shia background.

Israel's recognition of Somaliland in December 2025 was criticized by Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, who said "any Israeli presence in Somaliland is considered by our armed forces to be a military target," according to the DPA news agency.

Priyal Singh, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, however, believes that Somaliland features in Israel's much longer-term geopolitical ambitions for the region.

"I don't foresee any kind of hard security cooperation between Somaliland and Israel in the immediate term just because of how fluid and dynamic the situation with Iran is at the moment," he told DW.

Okello suggested that if Israel boosts its security presence in Somaliland, it could lead to renewed tensions between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa.

A previous dispute over a 2024 Memorandum of Understanding saw Ethiopia try to gain access to the Red Sea and its major trade routes in exchange for formal recognition of Somaliland .

He argued Israel's recognition of Somaliland has deepened ties between Israel, Ethiopia and the UAE, which, he said, naturally isolates and concerns Mogadishu.

"If Israel increases its activity and links it up with other relations involving Ethiopia and Abu Dhabi, you can see at least an expansion of the theater of conflict," he told DW.

Why can't Ethiopia and Eritrea be friends?

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Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions simmer
The conflict in the Middle East has emerged amid growing concerns about renewed tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea .

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has repeatedly insisted that landlocked Ethiopia must have direct sea access, with Eritrea's port of Assab , located just 75 kilometers (46 miles) from the Ethiopian border, frequently cited as a potential target — which has caused considerable anger in Eritrea .

In a February briefing , the International Crisis Group warned deepening rifts between Ethiopia and Eritrea are being driven partly by Addis Ababa's push for dependable sea access and Asmara's corresponding security fears, creating conditions that could escalate into open conflict.

Okello notes the involvement of regional powers such as the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia in the conflict with Iran reduces the likelihood of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

"Starting a war between Eritrea and Ethiopia now at a time when the US and UAE and all these others are caught up in the Middle East will be a front that will be extremely disorganizing.

It will spread the so-called medium superpowers across many theaters," he stated.

Singh says the potential for the conflict to escalate — possibly even reaching the Horn of Africa — depends heavily on US decisions.

He argues the war with Iran is particularly delicate for the current administration domestically, considering upcoming midterm elections.

"I think this past week has shown that there are certain limits that the US has to consider given how politically sensitive the issue is and how politically sensitive the issue of boots on the ground are, in the build-up to the coming mid-term elections," Singh said.

Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, chairperson of the African Union Commission, recently called for "immediate de-escalation, maximum restraint by all parties, and a swift return to dialogue and diplomacy as the only viable path toward sustainable peace and regional stability."
African leaders have not yet issued a coordinated public position regarding the conflict in the Middle East.

Youssouf told DW that a ministerial meeting is scheduled to take place in Morocco soon.

"There will be a meeting of the ministers of finance and foreign affairs in Morocco soon.

So, we will meet to come up with adaptation measures so that we can minimize the impact of that war on our economies," Youssouf told DW.

However, he didn't specify whether there would be a meeting at the heads of state and government level in the near future.

Why Ethiopia seeks control over Assab port