The head of the Myanmar's junta Min Aung Hlaing has swapped his

Myanmar's new parliament elected Min Aung Hlaing as president on April 3, formalizing the junta chief's grip on power under the veneer of civilian rule.

The 69-year-old general won 429 of 584 votes in a parliament dominated by the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), and a separate large bloc of lawmakers appointed by the junta.

The parliamentary vote was the culmination of a tightly managed transition designed to keep the armed forces at the center of power.

Min Aung Hlaing led the military coup of February 2021 that overthrew Aung San Suu Kyi's democratically elected National League for Democracy (NLD) government and plunged Myanmar into civil war.

After decades of direct or indirect army rule, the NLD won a landlslide victory in 2015 and formed a government, followed by another victory in 2020.

The generals alleged fraud despite international observers finding no evidence of serious irregularities, and staged a coup in early February 2021.

Human Rights Watch's Elaine Pearson on Myanmar election
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Five years on, Myanmar remains mired in civil war.

The military still holds the main cities and key state institutions, but it only controls less than half of the country's overall territory, with large swaths of the borderlands and countryside contested or held by resistance forces.

This February, UN reported that around 6,800 civilians have been killed and 3.6 million displaced by the conflict since 2021, although other groups put the death toll far higher.

The recent elections that paved the way for Min Aung Hlaing's presidency were never likely to end the bloodshed.

While the junta managed to organize the polls in three phases between late December and late January, the voting only took place in 265 of Myanmar's 330 townships because of the fighting.

The United Nations, Western governments and rights groups said the contest was neither free nor fair.

Anti-junta parties were shut out and criticism of the election was effectively criminalized.

Former civilian leader Suu Kyi, now 80, is currently serving a 27-year sentence on charges including corruption.

The USDP won 81% of the elected seats available .

Under the current constitution, the assembly also has a full quarter of its seats reserved for the military.

Min Aung Hlaing's looking to cement power gained in 2021
Min Aung Hlaing has also built new mechanisms to ensure that even this nominally civilian government does not dilute military authority.

Most notable is the new five-member Union Consultative Council, which analysts describe as a super-body sitting above the executive, legislature and judiciary.

In effect, the army chief has not stepped away from power so much as redistributed it across institutions that he and his allies still dominate.

This transition to a "civilian government" is far from democratization, Yoshihiro Nakanishi, a professor at Kyoto University's Center for Southeast Asian Studies, told DW.

"Rather, it is an attempt to formalize the military regime and treat the 2021 military coup as a fait accompli," he added.

Mynamar's shattered economy faces fresh fuel crisis
The nation's economy has been torn apart by war, sanctions, capital flight and chronic electricity shortages.

Now, Myanmar also faces the fallout of the war in Iran and the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Because Myanmar depends heavily on refined fuel imports from Singapore and Malaysia, higher oil prices and shipping costs are likely to feed directly into transport costs, inflation and daily hardship in cities already struggling with blackouts.

Myanmar's junta has already introduced fuel rationing for private vehicles.

"The energy crisis presents a serious additional challenge to any administration seeking to get a flailing economy back on track while continuing to face contestation of its control across the country," Moe Thuzar, senior fellow and coordinator of the Myanmar Studies Program at ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, told DW.

"The civil war situation in Myanmar over the past five years has not abated; neither has the military's determination to 'conduct effective combat against terrorists,' as it terms the resistance," said Thuzar.

Rohingya caught in the middle of Myanmar's civil war
Recent battlefield trends also suggest no imminent breakthrough for either side.

After suffering major reversals in 2023 and 2024, the junta adapted by expanding conscription, increasing drone use and leaning more heavily on air power.

In December, the military made limited gains in some areas, though no single force dominates the front lines nationwide.

At the same time, airstrikes have intensified and continue to inflict heavy civilian casualties, especially in Sagaing, Rakhine and other conflict-hit regions.

Before taking the presidency, Min Aung Hlaing stepped down as military chief last month, after spending 15 years in the post.

He has been replaced by close ally, General Ye Win Oo.

The new junta leader is the former spymaster who led the troops that arrested Suu Kyi during the 2021 coup.

Analysts and defectors say Ye Win Oo owes his rise largely to personal loyalty and patronage, and his appointment points to continuity rather than moderation.

Resistance forces, for their part, remain resilient and have announced a new umbrella body just before Min Aung Hlaing's presidential vote.

"The Spring Revolution and the country's civil war are likely to continue and may intensify," Sabe Soe, director of the NGO Burma Center Prague, told DW.

"Even amid these 'formal' political developments, the military has continued airstrikes against civilians.

The humanitarian situation and levels of repression are expected to worsen in the coming months," she added.

The activist also said it was critical for the international community not be misled by these "developments" and not confer legitimacy on the junta-led political system.

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ICC prosecutors want arrest warrant against Min Aung Hlaing
There is still room for some jockeying inside the regime camp, especially as military men, civilian proxies and business interests adapt to the new setup.

One figure to watch is Khin Yi, the USDP chairman and former police chief, who was elected speaker of the parliament's lower house in March.

Hunter Marston, a non-resident adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told DW that Khin Yi's early moves will reveal whether parliament is expected to do anything beyond rubber-stamping decisions from above.

"Parliament will likely seek to introduce modest political and economic reforms to stimulate growth and re-attract international investors," he noted.

"But I'm not holding my breath for any overnight changes or democratization more broadly."
Even as president, Min Aung Hlaing remains under international scrutiny for alleged atrocities.

The prosecutor at the International Criminal Court sought an arrest warrant for him in 2024 over the alleged persecution of the Rohingya .

More democracy or more dictatorship?

China has already congratulated the new administration, and some neighboring states may find it easier to engage with a nominally civilian government than an overt junta.

But diplomatic optics do not alter the underlying balance of power inside Myanmar.

"The fact that the military's top commander has simply taken off his uniform and assumed the presidency indicates that the military's accountability system is not functioning," Nakanishi said.

"The new government is likely to become an even more personal dictatorship," he added.