Jay Bilas predicts every game of the 2026 men's NCAA tournament

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(2:42)Jay BilasMar 16, 2026, 09:00 AM ETClose College basketball analyst for ESPN and ESPN Insider
Played and coached at Duke
Practicing attorneyMultiple AuthorsEmailPrintYou already know the drill
After my fellow analysts and I have the privilege of calling the SEC championship game in Nashville, Tennessee, we move swiftly to process the men's NCAA tournament field as it is revealed
Our bosses at ESPN ask us each to fill out a bracket -- while we are on the air -- so we can reveal our picks before the end of the show.They give us less than five minutes
Hardly ideal, but perhaps our first instincts are better than considered thought
I decided that I would give you more than five minutes so you can dazzle your friends and win your office pool -- and perhaps our Tournament Challenge.Last season, my bracket was chalky: I had all four No
1 seeds reaching the Final Four, Houston and Florida advancing to the championship game, and the Gators cutting down the nets
The backlash was swift and unrelenting
I was criticized for not picking an underdog to reach San Antonio
But when the dust cleared, all four No
1 seeds reached the Final Four, and the Cougars and Gators battled it out for the title
You're welcome -- and I forgive you
All of you.This season is different
Cinderella just took a year off
The top teams aren't so much better than the rest of the field, so there will be more surprises
Though picking a bunch of upsets might make you feel good when filling out the bracket, it is a much better feeling to be strategic and win
Pick only the upsets you feel strongly about, the ones you know the winner will lose in the next game
This strategy allows you the upside of early upsets, while limiting the downside if Cinderella's slipper doesn't fit later in the tournament.Here are my best guesses for the bracket
And remember: This is supposed to be fun.EAST REGIONFirst roundNo
16 matchup has featured two amazing upsets, when UMBC beat Virginia in 2018 and FDU beat Purdue in 2023
But two wins since the field expanded in 1985 aren't great odds for Siena
This game matches two coaches who won national championships as players -- Jon Scheyer and Gerry McNamara
Duke has Cameron Boozer.Winner: DukeNo
9 TCU Horned FrogsThe Buckeyes have Bruce Thornton, Ohio State's all-time leading scorer and a respected player across the country
TCU has David Punch, who scored a season-high 26 points against Oklahoma State in this week's Big 12 quarterfinals
This is an underrated team, one that beat Florida early in the season
The 8-9 matchup is a coin flip, but I am taking TCU.Winner: TCUNo
12 Northern Iowa PanthersThere is usually an upset alert in the 5 vs
John's is too strong -- and Rick Pitino does not often lose first-round games
13 California Baptist LancersKansas was awful in its Big 12 tournament loss to Houston -- the Jayhawks' 47 points were by far their fewest of the season
Regardless, they should win this game thanks to Flory Bidunga protecting the rim.Winner: KansasNo
11 South Florida BullsOne thing is for sure in this game: There will be a lot of long rebounds because both teams like to shoot 3s
This is a great upset pick: Mikel Brown Jr
has been out because of a sore back, and South Florida is tough
It's worth rolling the dice on this one because Michigan State will likely beat either team.Winner: South FloridaNo
14 North Dakota State BisonThe months go: January, February, Tom Izzo
Take the Spartans.Winner: Michigan StateNo
10 UCF KnightsThe Bruins have Donovan Dent, one of the five best point guards in the nation, but UCF has Themus Fulks, Jordan Burks and the Big 12's version of Draymond Green in Jamichael Stillwell
With UCLA banged up, the Knights are worth a flier.Winner: UCFNo
15 Furman PaladinsThough the Huskies have not been as dominant as many expected this season, this is still a really good team
Furman's Alex Wilkins has been one of the best freshmen in the country, but UConn's interior should be the difference.Winner: UConnSecond roundNo
9 TCUEven banged up, Duke should win, although TCU should be a really tough out
Still, take them -- a lot of brackets will be busted, so the rest of your choices will carry you.Winner: Dukeplay1:29Why Duke has a 'very, very difficult' draw in the EastJay Bilas, Jay Williams and Seth Greenberg examine potential roadblocks for Duke in the East Region.No
John'sThough Kansas can beat anyone, the Jayhawks can also lose to just about anyone
John's isn't just anyone.Winner: St
11 South FloridaAs we established earlier, I trust Michigan State in March
is the difference -- and he's coming into the tournament hot, having scored 20-plus points in each of his past four games.Winner: Michigan StateNo
10 UCFI don't have UConn as a Final Four team this year, but the Huskies are a second-weekend team.Winner: UConnSweet 16No
John'sThis one will depend on Duke's health
If Patrick Ngongba II is healthy, the Blue Devils win
If not, that lowers Duke's ceiling -- and the Johnnies can absolutely prevail
John's, take Duke in this one.Winner: DukeNo
3 Michigan StateBoth teams are experienced and worthy of the Elite Eight
But the Huskies are coming into the tournament cold after a loss in their regular-season finale to Marquette and then a rout by St
I like Michigan State's draw, and the fight the Spartans show -- they've beaten No
8 Purdue in the past six weeks, and played tough against Michigan twice.Winner: Michigan StateElite EightNo
3 Michigan StateThese two played in East Lansing earlier this season, with Duke winning 66-60
Michigan State has a great chance to avenge that loss
The Blue Devils would win a seven-game series, but this is only one
Go with Green.Winner: Michigan StateSOUTH REGIONFirst roundNo
16 Prairie View A&M / Lehigh Mountain HawksFlorida is too big and strong inside for an upset here
9 Iowa HawkeyesThe Tigers are big and well-coached, but the Hawkeyes have Bennett Stirtz, one of the best shotmakers in college basketball, who is averaging 20.2 points, 3.4 rebounds and 5.1 assists
Neither beats Florida, anyway.Winner: IowaNo
12 matchup is always a trendy upset pick -- and then-No
12 McNeese beat Clemson last year
But in this case, Vanderbilt's guards, Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles, are too good for a Cowboys upset
Take Vandy.Winner: VanderbiltNo
13 Troy TrojansThe Trojans won at San Diego State and lost in triple overtime at USC
And though Nebraska has never won an NCAA tournament game, this year ends that drought.Winner: NebraskaNo
11 VCU RamsThis is a scary game for the Tar Heels
Without Caleb Wilson, they have a lower ceiling
North Carolina is better and should win
But VCU is a fair upset pick here.Winner: North CarolinaNo
14 Pennsylvania QuakersThe Quakers have TJ Power, who had 44 points against Yale in a magnificent performance
But this Illinois team is very talented, especially on the offensive end -- and after all, the Illini's freshman phenom, Keaton Wagler, topped that mark with 46 points against Purdue in January
Illinois wins.Winner: IllinoisNo
10 Texas A&M AggiesTalk about a contrast in styles
Texas A&M under Bucky McMillan wants to get up and down the floor; the Aggies want to press, they want to be annoying
But Saint Mary's is going to be a problem to play against
It seems different to take Saint Mary's here and call it chalk, but the Gaels will slow the game down.Winner: Saint Mary'sNo
15 Idaho VandalsThe Cougars have Kingston Flemings, one of the best freshmen in the country and a certain lottery pick
Houston's defense is too good for an upset pick here.Winner: HoustonSecond roundNo
9 IowaFlorida has arguably the best frontcourt in the nation, featuring Thomas Haugh (an SEC Player of the Year contender); Rueben Chinyelu, an elite defender; and Alex Condon
With a big game from Stirtz, Iowa could certainly win this game, but I favor Florida.Winner: FloridaNo
5 VanderbiltThis is a great matchup
Nebraska can beat almost anyone, but Vanderbilt's guards will be the difference
It's a close call, but take Duke Miles' Commodores
He made a steal in the SEC final on Sunday at midcourt against Arkansas with his left hand that I thought was one of the best thefts I've seen all season long
He's legit.Winner: VanderbiltNo
6 North CarolinaIllinois can make life difficult for North Carolina, which will be relying on Henri Veesaar (16.7 points per game) in Wilson's absence
With Wagler leading a group of five Illini averaging double digits, Illinois just has too many scorers.Winner: IllinoisNo
7 Saint Mary'sHouston can play against fast or slow teams -- and can match Saint Mary's physical, slower pace
The Gaels can win, especially if the Cougars shoot poorly, but I favor Houston.Winner: HoustonSweet 16No
5 VanderbiltIn a rematch of the SEC tournament semifinals, this time Florida will have a little extra motivation
The Gators turned it over too much in that game against Vanderbilt's pressure and steal-happy guards, Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles
Despite the Commodores' talent there, Florida is bigger and stronger
Vandy will score, but Florida will be out for payback.Winner: Floridaplay1:19Is the South region set up for a Florida-Vandy Sweet 16 rematch?Seth Greenberg and Jay Bilas break down top-seed Florida's path in the South Region, with a potential rematch against Vanderbilt in the Sweet 16.No
3 IllinoisIllinois has the better offense, and Houston has the better defense
I am taking offense in this one, but it's an agonizing choice
Take the Illini, but understand the Cougars are fully capable of winning.Winner: IllinoisElite EightNo
3 IllinoisIllinois has better guards, in Keaton Wagler and Kylan Boswell
Florida is better inside and on the glass
This time, I'm taking Florida.Winner: FloridaWEST REGIONFirst roundNo
16 Long Island University SharksThe Sharks are coached by Rod Strickland, one of the best point guards in college hoops history, but he cannot play in this one
Arizona is too good, and remember: The 16-seed wins less than 1% of the time.Winner: ArizonaNo
9 Utah State AggiesThere is no such thing as an upset in the 8-9 game, but Utah State winning would feel like one
Mason Falslev is the Mountain West Player of the Year and MJ Collins Jr
This is a coin flip, but take Utah State
Either team is likely to lose to Arizona in the next round.Winner: Utah State​​No
12 High Point PanthersHigh Point can really score and has had a great year, but Wisconsin is the pick here
The Badgers have really good guards in Nick Boyd and John Blackwell -- and in fact this team can provide a tough matchup for Arizona down the line.Winner: WisconsinNo
13 Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsThe Rainbow Warriors can slow the game down against the Razorbacks, but Arkansas freshman Darius Acuff Jr
is the type of player who can carry a team to a Final Four
This is a tempting upset pick, but I am going with Arkansas.Winner: ArkansasNo
11 Texas Longhorns/NC State WolfpackI like Texas to beat NC State because the Longhorns have size and good guards and wings
BYU has the nation's leading scorer in AJ Dybantsa, but the Cougars can struggle to score beyond him and Robert Wright III
BYU isn't the same team it was earlier in the year, and I think its seed reflects what it was earlier in the year rather than late
I'm taking a flier on Texas here.Winner: TexasNo
14 Kennesaw State OwlsHistory tells us Gonzaga will advance -- the Bulldogs haven't lost before the second round since 2008
Coach Mark Few lives in the Sweet 16.Winner: GonzagaNo
10 Missouri TigersMiami has had a great season -- no team improved more year-over-year than the Hurricanes, who picked up 18 more wins -- but I like Missouri in this one, led by Mark Mitchell's 18.3 points per game
This is a coin flip, so take the upset pick.Winner: MissouriNo
15 Queens University RoyalsQueens, in its first NCAA tournament appearance, brings six players averaging double-figure scoring -- but Purdue, coming off a Big Ten title and win in its rematch against Michigan in the final, is finally playing like the team we imagined at the start of the year
Braden Smith is the best point guard in the country
Purdue wins.Winner: PurdueSecond roundNo
9 Utah StateWhether it is against Villanova or Utah State, Arizona is too big and talented to lose before the second weekend
The Wildcats have four wins against top-10 opponents in just the past month and seem to be picking up steam -- they haven't lost since Feb
Utah State is a tough out, but Arizona advances.Winner: ArizonaNo
5 WisconsinWisconsin has good shooting big men who can make things challenging for Arkansas -- in fact, I think the Badgers present a tough challenge for Arizona if they get to the second weekend
They can rain down 15 3s in a game -- that's what they did to Michigan
But the Razorbacks have Darius Acuff Jr., and nobody else does.Winner: Arkansasplay0:41Can Darius Acuff Jr
carry Arkansas to a national title?Jay Bilas wonders if freshman Darius Acuff Jr
is talented enough to lead Arkansas out of the West Region and into the Final Four.No
11 Texas The Zags are playing without Braden Huff -- and his 17.8 points and 5.6 rebounds per game -- which limits their offense and defense
Gonzaga is the better team, but consider taking a flier here
Texas is a sneaky 11-seed because of its size, Dailyn Swain's ability to score and Sean Miller's coaching chops.Winner: TexasNo
10 MissouriThe Boilermakers can give pause, but they've got a decent draw, and Braden Smith is the separator
He's averaging 9.0 assists per game (second in the country) and is shooting at the best clip of his career.Winner: PurdueSweet 16No
4 ArkansasDarius Acuff Jr, meet Koa Peat
Two of the best freshmen in the country would face off in this matchup, featuring two first-round NBA draft talents
He's gravity: He pulls defenders to him, and then he kicks it out
But Arizona is more talented all-around, and the Wildcats escape from this challenging matchup.Winner: ArizonaNo
11 TexasThe Longhorns have size and talent, but Purdue will win this game.Winner: PurdueElite EightNo
2 PurdueWhile very young at key spots, Arizona is simply bigger and more talented
Purdue is more experienced and will not be afraid of Arizona
But I love the Wildcats here.Winner: ArizonaMIDWEST REGIONFirst roundNo
16 UMBC Retrievers/Howard BisonMichigan lost L.J
Cason for the season a few weeks ago, which certainly limits the trajectory of the season for the Wolverines
Again: 16-seeds are not good bracket choices
Even if the nearly impossible happens, the 16-seed is very likely to lose the next game.Winner: MichiganNo
9 Saint Louis BillikensSaint Louis hunts great shots and runs a beautiful offense
Georgia has better athletes -- sophomore Jeremiah Wilkinson averages 17.0 points per game -- and can beat Saint Louis in transition.Winner: GeorgiaNo
12 Akron ZipsThere's an argument to be made that Akron had a better résumé than Miami (Ohio) -- and maybe was even the better team, even though the RedHawks won the one head-to-head meeting
The Zips are legit, and they're going to be a tough out
But if Christian Anderson is healthy and can find Donovan Atwell, one of the best shooters in America, for open shots, Texas Tech takes this one.Winner: Texas TechNo
13 Hofstra PrideThe Crimson Tide will have the best player on the floor in Labaron Philon Jr
(21.7 PPG), who had 28 points on 56% shooting in the SEC quarterfinal loss to Ole Miss.Winner: AlabamaNo
11 Miami (Ohio) RedHawks/SMU MustangsMiami (Ohio) is really good
So is SMU -- and the Mustangs are finally getting healthy and have better talent
Take SMU in the First Four, but neither will get past Tennessee in the first round
Ja'Kobi Gillespie has been a great addition to that team, and as long as the Vols play with the kind of defensive intensity that they usually do under coach Rick Barnes, I think they get past either team.Winner: Tennesseeplay1:45Why Jay Bilas believes Miami (OH) should've avoided the First FourJay Bilas doesn't agree with Miami (OH) needing to play in the First Four in the Midwest region.No
14 Wright State RaidersVirginia is underrated and a very good defensive team, allowing just 68.4 points per game (top-50 in the country, fourth in the ACC)
10 Santa Clara BroncosKentucky is banged up and inconsistent, and Santa Clara is big, skilled and has positional size at almost every position
To be clear: Kentucky could very well get upset here
I'm picking the Wildcats, though, assuming Otega Oweh has another big game.Winner: KentuckyNo
15 Tennessee State TigersThe Cyclones are among the nation's best defensive teams, scoring almost 20 points per game off turnovers
The only pause you should have here is Iowa State's inconsistent free throw shooting
Everything else is Final Four quality.Winner: Iowa StateSecond roundNo
8 GeorgiaThe Bulldogs have played and beaten some great teams -- but none as good as Michigan
Yaxel Lendeborg is a legit star
one of the best two-way stars in the country
He and the Wolverines will not lose here.Winner: MichiganNo
5 Texas TechThe Crimson Tide do not defend at the highest level, but they can really shoot it
Philon is a dude, but so are Latrell Wrightsell and Amare Allen
They've got a bunch of guys who can score
The shotmaking Alabama team takes it.Winner: AlabamaNo
6 TennesseeVirginia can protect the paint and the 3-point line, but Tennessee is physical and pounds the offensive glass
The Vols are better with Nate Ament in the lineup, and he returned for the SEC tournament
If he can approach his season averages of 17.5 points and 6.6 rebounds per game, alongside Gillespie's talent, they should take it.Winner: TennesseeNo
7 KentuckyKentucky is wounded and a bit worn down
Iowa State has Joshua Jefferson, one of the most versatile and talented point forwards in the game -- who happens to be averaging career highs in points (16.9), rebounds (7.6) and assists (4.9) as a sophomore
Advance Iowa State.Winner: Iowa StateSweet 16No
4 AlabamaI think Michigan is clearly the best team in this region, but if I'm the Wolverines, Alabama is the one team I wouldn't want to play
If Alabama makes shots, the Crimson Tide can beat Michigan
Hell, if Alabama hits shots, the Crimson Tide can beat anyone
Advance Michigan in your bracket
I already have.Winner: MichiganNo
6 TennesseeCoach Rick Barnes' Volunteers are always standouts on defense, but here, they meet their match
The Cyclones are one of the five best defensive teams in the nation
If they can force Tennessee into turnovers -- the Vols have not been great at taking care of the basketball late -- they'll win this game
Iowa State is the real deal.Winner: Iowa StateElite EightNo
Cason were available, I would take Michigan in this game
But Iowa State is just too good on the defensive end
The Cyclones are the best team in this region, and they'll get it done here.Winner: Iowa StateFINAL FOURNo
1 Florida GatorsThis will be a great matchup of Florida's incredible frontcourt and a top-10 defense in Michigan State
Izzo hasn't been to the national championship game since his squad won in 2000 -- that changes this year.Winner: Michigan StateNo
2 Iowa StateArizona hasn't been to the Final Four since 2001, but coach Tommy Lloyd won't be satisfied with just that
This Arizona team is good enough to compete for a national title, and it gets it done against Iowa State.Winner: ArizonaNational ChampionshipNo
3 Michigan StateIn the battle of droughts, the West will be won: Arizona wins its first championship in nearly 20 years.Winner: Arizona