Four major races shift in favor of Democrats as Senate looks more likely to swing in their favor

Democrats see their fortunes improve in Ohio, Nebraska, Georgia and North Carolina
The Cook Political Report shifted four Senate races to favor Democratic candidates as the minority party looks increasingly poised to flip the upper chamber .

Cook is known largely for its ratings of how elections might tilt.

Democrats hold 47 Senate seats, meaning they need to flip four seats to win the majority.

To do so, they will need to hold two Senate seats–in Michigan and Georgia — in states President Donald Trump won in 2024 — and flip at least four Senate seats.

The report changed its rating for North Carolina ’s Senate race from a toss-up to “lean Democratic.” Roy Cooper , the state’s former Democratic governor, is running for the seat being vacated by outgoing Republican Sen.

Thom Tillis .

Democrats have not won a Senate race there since 2008, when Kay Hagan won a seat the same year that Barack Obama flipped the Tar Heel State.

Cook also changed the rating for Georgia from toss-up to lean Democratic.

Sen.

Jon Ossoff is the sole incumbent Democrat running for re-election in a state where Trump won by 2 percentage points in 2024.

Ossoff first notched won his seat in 2021 in a runoff election shortly after Joe Biden had flipped the state.

But Ossoff has proven to be an adept fundraiser and campaigner.

Republicans have also failed to field a credible candidate after term-limited Gov.

Brian Kemp passed on running.

Instead, he’s backed former University of Tennessee football head coach Derek Dooley, who has failed to catch steam.

Reps.

Buddy Carter and Mike Collins are also running.

An Emerson College poll showed the incumbent beating all three Republicans.

Cook also shifted the Ohio Senate race from lean Republican to a toss-up.

Gov.

Mike DeWine appointed John Husted to fill the seat Vice President JD Vance vacated.

In response, former Sen.

Sherrod Brown jumped into the race.

Brown served three terms in the Senate but lost to Republican Sen.

Bernie Moreno in 2024 thanks in part to gobs of cash spent by Republicans and the crypto industry.

Democrats believe Brown, with his name recognition and unique brand, can flip the seat and beat Husted.

But Ohio is no longer the swing state it once was, voting for Trump three times.

Lastly, Cook changed the rating for Nebraska’s Senate race from solid Republican to likely Republican.

When Sen.

Ben Sasse resigned his seat early, the Gov.

Jim Pillen appointed former Gov.

Pete Ricketts.

Ricketts comes from money and his family owns the Chicago Cubs.

But independent Dan Osborn is running in the race after narrowly lost to Sen.

Deb Fischer in 2024.

Nebraska still has a largely Republican bent.

But the race also comes as Democrats hope to flip the open second district congressional seat, which voted for Kamala Harris in 2024.

Still, even if Democrats and independents win each of these races, Democrats would still need to win two more seats.

In Maine, incumbent Gov.

Janet Mills and oyster farmer Graham Platner are running in a race to be the nominee to run against Republican incumbent Sen.

Susan Collins, the only Republican from a state that voted for Harris.

In Alaska, former Rep.

Mary Peltola is running against Sen.

Dan Sullivan.

Peltola’s campaign announced on Monday that she had raised more than $8.9 million in the first fundraising quarter of this year.

Lastly, Democrats are hoping that a bloody Republican runoff between incumbent Sen.

John Cornyn and MAGA Attorney General Ken Paxton will create an opening for state Rep.

James Talarico.

Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies